Nations are disappearing and a Civilization is dying
15 January 2024
By Dr Adi Schlebusch
Nearly a quarter of a century ago Patrick Buchanan published The Death of the West, which was aptly subtitled “How dying populations and immigrant invasions imperil our country and civilization.” In the work he issues the sobering warning that within just over a century entire European nations will almost disappear from the face of the earth, noting that the West's apostasy from the Christian faith has effectively extinguished our desire to continue existing as peoples and as a civilization (Death of the West, p. 9).
All of Buchanan's prophecies are becoming a reality in the Western world today. Take Italy, for example. The country's birthrate already dropped below replacement level back in 1977. Their natural population decline kicked in in 1993, 32 years ago. In 1992, Italy's population was 56.8 million. Over the past 32 years, the country's natural population decline has been just over 3 million people, yet its total population has grown to 58.9 million—all because of immigration. This means that even when not accounting for the children of immigrants born in Italy, immigration alone contributed to a growth of 5.1 million people - around 9% of the current Italian population. With a fertility rate of under 1.2 children per woman, Italy's population currently continues to decline by 24 000 people every single month.
In Germany the demographic situation looks even worse if you take the mass immigration into the country into account. Germany's fertility rate dropped below replacement levels in 1970, and since the natural population decline kicked in in 1972, the population loss has been just over 7 million people. The population in 1972 was 78.7 million people, meaning that, not accounting for immigration, Germany's population would be around 72 million people now. Germany now loses more than 27 000 people every month or 325 000 per year. The annual population decline in just these two nations—Germany and Italy—is now roughly equal to the total population of the state of Vermont.
Yet despite this natural decline, the current population of Germany now stands at 83.5 million people, meaning that immigrants alone (not including their children born in Germany) account for 14% of Germany's population. When it comes to children under 5, it is estimated that 43% of children in Germany have a foreign ethnic background. If you account for future immigration, German children born in Germany today will grow up to live in a country where more than half of their peers are ethnically non-German and a third are non-white. Moreover, in just ten years time the number of ethnic Germans in Germany is expected to drop to 55 million—equivalent to what the German population was back in 1899.
One of the less than a handful European countries where births still slightly exceed deaths is England, which in 2023 boasted a natural population increase of around 19 000 people. However, during that same year the white British population of England dropped below 70% and the total white European population dropped just below 80%. Of all newborn children, it is estimated that nearly 40% are non-white, meaning considering current trends, white people are expected to become a minority in England within less than 50 years.
Eastern European nations may not have the same problems with the foreign invasion that Western European nations have, but their future prospects of continuing to exist as nations are not looking much better. In Estonia, there were less than 10 000 births recorded in 2024, compared to almost 16 000 deaths. The natural population decline of 6000 people in a single year is quite significant for a nation of just 1.3 million. If current trends continue, their population will be halved by the end of this century.
In Greece, where the fertility rate has now also dropped below 1.3 children per woman, deaths now exceed births by more than 60 000 per year. By 2030 Greece's population is expected to drop below 10 million for the first time since 1987.
All of the aforementioned European countries have of course had their populations supplemented by Ukrainian refugees over the past few years. So in order to get a better picture of the demographic state of Europe as a whole, one also needs to take into account the spectacular population decline in Ukraine over the past few decades—a trend greatly exacerbated by the Russo-Ukrainian war over the past few years. Ukraine's population peaked at 52.2 million in 1992. Currently, the population is 31.2 million people, marking a 40% decline over the past 33 years. Ukraine's natural population decrease is currently around 28 000 people per month.
In America, the situation is only marginally better than in Europe, with a fertility rate of just over 1.8 children per woman. However, unhyphenated heritage Americans whose fertility rate is just over 1.6, account for only 51% of children born in the US today. This means that even with minimal future immigration, whites are expected to constitute a minority of Generation Alpha Americans in the near future.
The history of the past quarter of a century have vindicated Pat Buchanan in more ways than one. The path the West is currently on is nothing short of suicidal. Yet there is always hope in Christ, for He is risen and has been enthroned over the nations. Ultimately, all of these trends only highlight the great need of our time and the calling of our generation: building a New Christendom through strong, large families and establishing ethnic charter communities with the potential to one day achieve self-determination such as the ones currently being developed in Ogden, Utah, Burkesville, Kentucky, Gainsboro, Tennessee and Orania and Kleinfontein in South Africa.